Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-08 23:43

85%
Win Probability
+51.6
Projected Margin
CI: [+31.6 to +71.6]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
5
Bust Risk
Juwan Johnson (61%), Rams D/ST (60%), Bucky Irving (51%), Jameson Williams (46%), Omarion Hampton (53%)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett HOU15.320.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving ATL16.415.0MODERATEHIGH
RB Omarion Hampton KC12.112.0MODERATELOW
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba IND20.922.0MODERATEHIGH
WR Rashee Rice LAC17.118.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson CAR9.79.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams LAR13.815.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers IND8.311.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Rams D/ST DET6.98.0MODERATELOW

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 19% bust
ADD Evan Engram (TE) 32% boom / 24% bust
ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn (K) 29% boom / 30% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (27 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

WR depth thin with MHJ out. Monitor waiver wire for playoff-friendly schedules. Current FA candidates: Rashid Shaheed (NO) has boom potential, Cooper Kupp trending down.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against the Meat Pistols, with our projected 130.0 points comfortably ahead of their 78.4. The Thursday night kickoff features Bucky Irving against Atlanta in ideal Tampa weather. Jaxon Smith-Njigba maintains WR1 status against a vulnerable Indianapolis secondary, while Jacoby Brissett gets the nod over Jordan Love due to his 73% historical boom rate and Love's cold Denver road trip. Fantasy playoffs begin next week - this win clinches positioning.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

130.4 - 75.6 vs Meat Pistols

Games Completed (12)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB ✓ 19.0 15.3 20.0 -1.0
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 16.1 16.4 15.0 +1.1
Omarion Hampton RB RB ✓ 14.7 12.1 12.0 +2.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR ✓ 28.1 20.9 22.0 +6.1
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 7.4 17.1 18.0 -10.6
Juwan Johnson TE TE ✓ 7.8 9.7 9.0 -1.2
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 17.3 13.8 15.0 +2.3
Jason Myers K K ✓ 14.0 8.3 11.0 +3.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 6.0 6.9 8.0 -2.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 19.3 17.6 18.0 +1.3
Luther Burden III (bench) WR BE ✓ 11.0 10.3 11.0 0.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.7 8.6 8.0 -1.3

Games Pending (4)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 0.0 5.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 12.0
130.4 Starter Actuals
0.0 Remaining Proj
130.4 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Completed (12)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Patrick Mahomes QB QB ✓ 6.3 17.9 --- -11.6
Nick Chubb RB RB ✓ 0.3 5.3 --- -5.0
Ollie Gordon II RB RB ✓ 7.7 3.2 --- +4.5
Keon Coleman WR WR ✓ 3.6 6.7 --- -3.1
Malik Washington WR WR ✓ 4.0 8.4 --- -4.4
Dalton Kincaid TE TE ✓ 14.1 10.0 --- +4.1
DJ Moore WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 0.6 12.8 --- -12.2
Brandon Aubrey K K ✓ 24.0 8.9 --- +15.1
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 15.0 5.2 --- +9.8
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE ✓ 9.0 7.9 --- +1.1
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE ✓ 20.4 14.7 --- +5.7
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE ✓ 3.0 3.7 --- -0.7

Opponent Games Pending (4)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Ray Davis (bench) RB BE 2.6 ---
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
75.6 Opp Actuals
0.0 Opp Remaining
75.6 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +54.8 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust. @ DEN cold 42°F, outdoor. XGB agrees with MODERATE selection. QB13 ranking supports mid-tier outcome. 18.0 within MOD [9-24].

Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 15

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CHI17.619.3?+1.6
13DET15.725.8?+10.0
12MIN17.47.1?-10.4
11NYG16.317.7?+1.3
10PHI17.07.8?-9.1
9CAR18.19.0?-9.1
8PIT17.128.3?+11.2
7ARI17.413.4?-4.0
6CIN19.315.0?-4.4
5BYE0.00.0?+0.0
4DAL18.626.3?+7.7
3CLE16.011.1?-4.9
2WSH17.620.9?+3.3
1DET14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], 25% BUST. XGB: 20% boom, 34% bust. MC strongly favors BOOM based on ARI's recent hot streak. @ HOU dome, QB10 ranking. Trusting MC over XGB. 20.0 within BOOM [12-30].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 22

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR15.319.0?+3.7
13TB17.219.6?+2.4
12JAX16.718.7?+1.9
  • 3-game streak of beating projections

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MOD [8-20], 19% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust. XGB warns high bust risk vs ATL. Thursday game 72°F Tampa perfect. RB8 ranking but XGB caution - selecting conservative MODERATE. 15.0 within [8-20].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 19

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14NO16.416.1?-0.3
13ARI11.816.1?+4.3
12LAR0.00.0?+0.0
11BUF0.00.0?+0.0
10NE0.00.0?+0.0
9BYE0.00.0?+0.0
8NO0.00.0?+0.0
7DET0.00.0?+0.0
6SF0.00.0?+0.0
5SEA0.00.0?+0.0
4PHI17.525.5?+8.0
3NYJ17.913.9?-4.0
2HOU15.918.1?+2.2
1ATL17.314.5?-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MOD [2-14], 18% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 33% bust. @ SF 49ers defense, RB45 ranking = SIT. Committee back, limited ceiling. MODERATE mode. 8.0 within [2-14].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 139

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CLE8.66.7?-1.9
13JAX9.98.4?-1.5
12SEA9.66.5?-3.1
11HOU9.08.4?-0.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9LAC9.59.2?-0.3
8IND9.517.2?+7.7
7NE7.87.0?-0.8
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [5-17], 27% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust. @ KC tough matchup, cold 44°F. XGB strongly warns BUST. RB25 ranking, but holding for ceiling - MODERATE. 12.0 within [5-17].

Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 60

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14PHI12.114.7?+2.6
13LV0.00.0?+0.0
12BYE0.00.0?+0.0
11JAX0.00.0?+0.0
10PIT0.00.0?+0.0
9TEN0.00.0?+0.0
8MIN0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 2.1 pts vs 1.7 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.65)
  • Season high: 14.7 pts in Week 14

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6], 22% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WSH, but NYG offense struggles. XGB + MC agree BUST likely. 5.0 within BUST range [-1-6].

Context: O/U: 47.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
12DET9.94.7?-5.2
11GB9.617.7?+8.1
10CHI9.710.3?+0.6
  • Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
  • Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MOD [12-24], 29% BOOM. XGB: 12% boom, 22% bust. vs IND weak secondary, WR1 ranking. Seattle favored by 11.5. Rain 45°F manageable. Conservative MODERATE with upside. 22.0 within [12-24].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14ATL20.928.1?+7.2
13MIN21.94.3?-17.6
12TEN21.337.1?+15.8
11LAR23.020.6?-2.4
10ARI22.020.3?-1.7
9WSH24.522.0?-2.5
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7HOU20.026.3?+6.3
6JAX17.930.2?+12.3
5TB15.927.2?+11.3
4ARI16.413.0?-3.4
3NO15.520.6?+5.1
2PIT14.418.3?+3.9
1SF14.719.4?+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 46% BUST [3-11], 39% MOD. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust. @ NO dome. CAR offense struggling but WR21 ranking. XGB more optimistic than MC. Split difference - MODERATE. 12.0 within [7-19].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
13LAR13.211.3?-1.9
12SF16.311.5?-4.8
11ATL13.533.0?+19.5
10NO12.211.0?-1.2
9GB12.98.6?-4.3
8BUF13.416.9?+3.5
7NYJ12.56.3?-6.2
6DAL14.617.9?+3.3
5MIA14.213.3?-0.9
4NE14.210.2?-4.0
3ATL13.27.8?-5.4
2ARI13.516.0?+2.5
1JAX13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [16-31], 26% MOD. XGB: 32% boom, 28% bust. vs LAC #2 pass D - tough matchup offsets boom tendency. WR7 ranking. XGB boom at 32% suggests potential. MODERATE safer. 18.0 within MOD [10-22].

Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 11

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 32% | Bust 28% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14HOU17.17.4?-9.7
13DAL18.129.4?+11.3
12IND17.624.1?+6.5
11DEN16.49.8?-6.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9BUF18.418.6?+0.2
8WSH17.225.5?+8.2
7LV13.723.2?+9.5
6DET0.00.0?+0.0
5JAX0.00.0?+0.0
4BAL0.00.0?+0.0
3NYG0.00.0?+0.0
2PHI0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 10.6 pts vs 9.1 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.11)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [9-21], 24% BOOM. XGB: 12% boom, 46% bust. @ LAR dome, DET shootout potential (55.5 total). XGB warns bust risk. WR11 ranking. MODERATE with upside. 15.0 within [9-21].

Context: O/U: 55.5 | ECR: 35

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 46% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14DAL13.817.3?+3.5
13GB11.826.9?+15.1
12NYG12.90.0?-12.9
11PHI12.619.7?+7.1
  • Averaging 16.0 pts vs 12.8 projected (+25%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.71)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 55% MOD [8-13], 25% BOOM. XGB: insufficient data. vs CLE good D (rank 9 vs WR), snow 37°F Chicago. WR35 ranking = FLEX. MODERATE. 11.0 within [8-13].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 45

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14GB10.311.0?+0.7

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MOD [4-13], 32% BOOM. XGB: 15% boom, 61% bust. vs CAR weak D at TE. XGB warns high bust but MC sees moderate floor. TE15 ranking. MODERATE. 9.0 within [4-13].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 18

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14TB9.77.8?-1.9
13MIA8.78.9?+0.2
12ATL9.310.6?+1.3
11BYE0.00.0?+0.0
10CAR8.919.2?+10.2
9LAR8.312.1?+3.8
  • Averaging 9.8 pts vs 7.5 projected (+31%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.64)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [2-8], 40% MOD [7-16]. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust. vs BUF #1 TE defense (4.9 pts allowed). Both MC + XGB warn bust. MODERATE at bottom of range. 8.0 within [7-16].

Context: O/U: 50.5 | ECR: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust. @ DEN cold 42°F, outdoor. XGB agrees with MODERATE selection. QB13 ranking supports mid-tier outcome. 18.0 within MOD [9-24].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CHI17.619.3?+1.6
13DET15.725.8?+10.0
12MIN17.47.1?-10.4
11NYG16.317.7?+1.3
10PHI17.07.8?-9.1
9CAR18.19.0?-9.1
8PIT17.128.3?+11.2
7ARI17.413.4?-4.0
6CIN19.315.0?-4.4
5BYE0.00.0?+0.0
4DAL18.626.3?+7.7
3CLE16.011.1?-4.9
2WSH17.620.9?+3.3
1DET14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 46% BUST [3-11], 39% MOD. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust. @ NO dome. CAR offense struggling but WR21 ranking. XGB more optimistic than MC. Split difference - MODERATE. 12.0 within [7-19].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
13LAR13.211.3?-1.9
12SF16.311.5?-4.8
11ATL13.533.0?+19.5
10NO12.211.0?-1.2
9GB12.98.6?-4.3
8BUF13.416.9?+3.5
7NYJ12.56.3?-6.2
6DAL14.617.9?+3.3
5MIA14.213.3?-0.9
4NE14.210.2?-4.0
3ATL13.27.8?-5.4
2ARI13.516.0?+2.5
1JAX13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. () - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19%

Notes: OUT - confirmed injured. Setting 0.0 pts.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR0.00.0?+0.0
13TB13.712.9?-0.8
12JAX0.00.0?+0.0
11SF0.00.0?+0.0
10SEA13.314.3?+1.0
9DAL13.322.6?+9.3
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7GB12.57.8?-4.7
6IND11.95.2?-6.7
5TEN12.813.8?+1.0
4SEA11.318.6?+7.3
3SF12.77.4?-5.3
2CAR14.04.7?-9.3
1NO13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 33%

Notes: MC: 67% MOD [2-14], 18% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 33% bust. @ SF 49ers defense, RB45 ranking = SIT. Committee back, limited ceiling. MODERATE mode. 8.0 within [2-14].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CLE8.66.7?-1.9
13JAX9.98.4?-1.5
12SEA9.66.5?-3.1
11HOU9.08.4?-0.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9LAC9.59.2?-0.3
8IND9.517.2?+7.7
7NE7.87.0?-0.8
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST [2-8], 40% MOD [7-16]. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust. vs BUF #1 TE defense (4.9 pts allowed). Both MC + XGB warn bust. MODERATE at bottom of range. 8.0 within [7-16].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6], 22% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WSH, but NYG offense struggles. XGB + MC agree BUST likely. 5.0 within BUST range [-1-6].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
12DET9.94.7?-5.2
11GB9.617.7?+8.1
10CHI9.710.3?+0.6
  • Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
  • Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

Notes: MC: 55% MOD [8-13], 25% BOOM. XGB: insufficient data. vs CLE good D (rank 9 vs WR), snow 37°F Chicago. WR35 ranking = FLEX. MODERATE. 11.0 within [8-13].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14GB10.311.0?+0.7

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 47% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 19.4 19.4 47% 38% 15% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 8.1 8.1 28% 44% 28% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 10.9 10.9 18% 53% 29% LOW
Keon Coleman WR 9.2 9.2 16% 56% 28% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 8.1 8.1 12% 34% 55% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 10.5 10.5 11% 28% 60% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 10.3 10.3 10% 34% 56% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 8.6 8.6 10% 37% 54% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 6.9 6.9 9% 30% 61% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 23% | BOOM: 45%) | XGB (Boom 47% | Bust 15%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 28%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 69% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 29%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 47% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 28%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 55%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 60%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 32% | BOOM: 40%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 56%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 54%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 61%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (6): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (27 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%50%
Bust%19%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (13-28)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%32%
Bust%24%
EV8.3
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn K,
Boom%29%
Bust%30%
EV10.2
BUST: 14% (0-6) MODERATE: 51% (5-12) BOOM: 35% (10-19)
ADD Harold Fannin Jr. TE,
Boom%28%
Bust%21%
EV10.5
BUST: 40% (2-8) MODERATE: 44% (7-16) BOOM: 16% (15-27)
ADD Michael Badgley K,
Boom%28%
Bust%45%
EV8.5
BUST: 27% (2-8) MODERATE: 53% (5-12) BOOM: 20% (9-18)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 50% 19% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.3 32% 24% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.2 29% 30% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 28% 21% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.5 28% 45% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 27% 39% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.4 27% 36% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.1 24% 27% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.2 22% 36% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.7 22% 43% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.8 21% 37% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.8 18% 49% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.9 18% 46% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 16% 56% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.7 14% 45% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 16% 56%
Kyler Murray 16.7 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 14% 45%
Justin Fields 0.0 OUT:100% 14% 48%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 50% 19%
Isiah Pacheco 8.1 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 24% 27%
Chuba Hubbard 11.2 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 22% 36%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 21% 37%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.0 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 8% 59%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 8.9 BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 9.9 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 14% 55%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 10% 58%
Keenan Allen 11.8 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 10% 55%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.3 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 32% 24%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 28% 21%
Colston Loveland 9.9 BUST:47%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 10% 50%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.2 29% 30%
Michael Badgley 8.5 28% 45%
Evan McPherson 9.5 10% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.4 27% 36%
Patriots D/ST 8.7 22% 43%
Dolphins D/ST 8.8 18% 49%

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.311.0MODERATE47.9%32.4%19.7%
Marvin Harrison Jr.---0.0BUST44.8%36.1%19.2%
Rashee RiceWR17.118.0MODERATE31.6%40.8%27.6%
Jordan LoveQB17.618.0MODERATE26.6%51.7%21.7%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.68.0MODERATE22.0%44.8%33.2%
Tetairoa McMillanWR---12.0MODERATE20.7%57.1%22.2%
Jacoby BrissettQB15.320.0BOOM19.8%46.0%34.2%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.79.0MODERATE14.8%24.6%60.7%
Devin SingletaryRB---5.0BUST13.7%31.3%55.0%
Rams D/STD/ST6.98.0MODERATE12.3%28.0%59.7%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.815.0MODERATE12.1%41.7%46.2%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.922.0MODERATE12.0%66.2%21.8%
Bucky IrvingRB16.415.0MODERATE11.1%38.2%50.7%
Omarion HamptonRB12.112.0MODERATE10.5%36.8%52.8%
Hunter HenryTE---8.0MODERATE8.6%31.4%60.0%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-08 23:43

Matchup Summary

85.9%

Win Probability

+32.7
Expected Margin
130.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
91.7
Opponent (Proj)
30.1
Margin Std Dev
124.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -6.2 pts | Median: +33.2 pts | Ceiling: +71.0 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
RB Nick Chubb QUESTIONABLE 6.4 Christian McCaffrey 25.3

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 91.7 86.1% +32.8
All injured starters out 15.0% 107.5 71.1% +16.9

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 20.0 4.1-28.0 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 15.0 5.3-24.0 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 9% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 12.0 3.7-24.4 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 16% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 22.0 6.2-30.8 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 5% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 18.0 6.0-28.0 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 15.0 4.1-25.2 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.0 2.9-16.9 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 1.1-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.0 5.2-16.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 18.0 6.2-28.0 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.4-18.6 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 27% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 5.0 0.6-18.1 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 53% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 12.0 5.4-25.5 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 8% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luther Burden III WR LOW 11.0 7.4-14.7 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 3% Luther Burden III
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 8.0 3.5-21.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 19.3 8.3-31.2 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 1% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB HIGH 6.9 0.5-14.9 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 46% Nick Chubb
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 8.0 0.9-16.9 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 39% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 10.9 3.8-22.1 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 24% DJ Moore
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.7-18.7 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% Keon Coleman
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.1 2.2-15.6 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 33% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 10.4 3.0-18.7 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 24% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.6 0.3-21.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 40% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 10.4 4.0-19.4 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 17% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.1-26.8 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 18% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.7 11.9-35.2 ↑15+: 76% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.4 2.3-20.9 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 31% Rhamondre Stevenson
Ray Davis RB HIGH 6.7 0.4-15.5 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 49% Ray Davis
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.2 3.6-19.8 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.9 0.6-16.8 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 38% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 9.0 2.6-16.2 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 26% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.2 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.6 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.3 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 22.8 47% @ 11.9 26% @ 4.8 13.0
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.8 47% @ 11.7 33% @ 6.4 10.9
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 14.9 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.3 14.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 73% @ 21.3 2% @ 14.7 25% @ 5.8 17.3
Rams D/ST D/ST 22% @ 17.6 39% @ 9.2 40% @ 4.0 8.9

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 9-4 1744.9 1548.1 +196.8 106.9 vs 98.1 W2 99.9%
2 4th and pinches 8-5 1633.8 1645.4 -11.6 147.3 vs 116.9 L1 81.5%
3 Meat Pistols 8-5 1429.7 1471.9 -42.3 75.6 vs 130.4 W1 48.3%
4 Valued Customers ← 7-6 1686.6 1445.6 +241.0 130.4 vs 75.6 W3 59.8%
5 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-6 1644.8 1620.4 +24.4 116.9 vs 147.3 L1 35.3%
6 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-6 1610.5 1537.4 +73.1 98.1 vs 106.9 W4 30.9%
7 Wookie of the Year 7-6 1603.3 1616.8 -13.5 125.0 vs 99.2 W1 39.3%
8 Moms rules 6-7 1536.5 1662.1 -125.6 103.8 vs 106.8 L1 4.4%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-7 1478.5 1533.2 -54.7 99.2 vs 125.0 L3 0.5%
10 Smooth Roosters 5-8 1471.5 1561.6 -90.1 106.8 vs 103.8 W1 0.0%
11 Auto DraftKings 4-9 1584.9 1631.2 -46.3 82.0 vs 104.6 L2 0.0%
12 The Warsaw Pact 4-9 1495.1 1646.5 -151.4 104.6 vs 82.0 L4 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 106.9 @ 98.1 Torta Pounders Football Club
4th and pinches 147.3 @ 116.9 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 75.6 @ 130.4 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 125.0 @ 99.2 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits
Moms rules 103.8 @ 106.8 Smooth Roosters
Auto DraftKings 82.0 @ 104.6 The Warsaw Pact

Waiver Wire Notes

WR depth thin with MHJ out. Monitor waiver wire for playoff-friendly schedules. Current FA candidates: Rashid Shaheed (NO) has boom potential, Cooper Kupp trending down.

Injury Concerns

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

3.6
Our Team MAE
16 players
8.4
Opponent MAE
9 players
25
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.3
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 0.0 - 24.0 +24.0
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 0.0 - 15.0 +15.0
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 0.0 - 14.1 +14.1
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 18.0 7.4 -10.6
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 0.0 - 7.7 +7.7
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 0.0 - 6.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Opponent WR Malik Washington 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 0.0 - 3.6 +3.6
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 11.0 14.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 12.0 14.7 +2.7
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 15.0 17.3 +2.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.9 8.0 6.0 -2.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 9.0 7.8 -1.2
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 15.0 16.1 +1.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 20.0 19.0 -1.0
Opponent WR DJ Moore 0.0 - 0.6 +0.6
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 0.0 - 0.3 +0.3
Our Team Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 11.0 11.0 +0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-12-08T23:43:39.613440

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.6 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 15.9 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 16.4 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.1 pts
Median (50th) 13.9 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 30.4 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.3 pts
Median (50th) 10.6 pts
90th percentile 26.0 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
21% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
45% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 16.9 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
32% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.6 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
22% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.7 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 17.2 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 17.0 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 13.8 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 14.6 pts
90th percentile 25.2 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 15.3 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
20% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 6.9 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 21.9 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.9 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
Luther Burden III distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 10.3 pts
BOOM
25%
MODERATE
55%
BUST
20%
10th percentile 7.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Patrick Mahomes distribution
BUST
32%
MODERATE
23%
BOOM
45%
10th percentile 8.6 pts
Median (50th) 18.6 pts
90th percentile 31.2 pts
MC (Historical)
45% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
47% BOOM
Vikings D/ST (D/ST)
Vikings D/ST distribution
BUST
45%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 0.3 pts
Median (50th) 6.8 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
DJ Moore (WR)
DJ Moore distribution
BUST
69%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
2%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 22.2 pts
MC (Historical)
2% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Nick Chubb (RB)
Nick Chubb distribution
BUST
37%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 5.6 pts
90th percentile 15.3 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Ollie Gordon II (RB)
Ollie Gordon II distribution
BUST
42%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.1 pts
90th percentile 16.8 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Keon Coleman (WR)
Keon Coleman distribution
BUST
47%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.4 pts
90th percentile 18.7 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Malik Washington (WR)
Malik Washington distribution
BUST
30%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.0 pts
90th percentile 15.5 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Dalton Kincaid distribution
BUST
28%
MODERATE
32%
BOOM
40%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.4 pts
90th percentile 18.8 pts
MC (Historical)
40% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Brandon Aubrey (K)
Brandon Aubrey distribution
BUST
29%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.0 pts
90th percentile 19.4 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM