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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | HOU | 15.3 | 20.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | KC | 12.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.3 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | DET | 6.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (27 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
WR depth thin with MHJ out. Monitor waiver wire for playoff-friendly schedules. Current FA candidates: Rashid Shaheed (NO) has boom potential, Cooper Kupp trending down.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against the Meat Pistols, with our projected 130.0 points comfortably ahead of their 78.4. The Thursday night kickoff features Bucky Irving against Atlanta in ideal Tampa weather. Jaxon Smith-Njigba maintains WR1 status against a vulnerable Indianapolis secondary, while Jacoby Brissett gets the nod over Jordan Love due to his 73% historical boom rate and Love's cold Denver road trip. Fantasy playoffs begin next week - this win clinches positioning.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 19.0 | 15.3 | 20.0 | -1.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 16.1 | 16.4 | 15.0 | +1.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | ✓ 14.7 | 12.1 | 12.0 | +2.7 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | ✓ 28.1 | 20.9 | 22.0 | +6.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 7.4 | 17.1 | 18.0 | -10.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 7.8 | 9.7 | 9.0 | -1.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 15.0 | +2.3 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | ✓ 14.0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 6.0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 19.3 | 17.6 | 18.0 | +1.3 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 11.0 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | 12.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | ✓ 6.3 | 17.9 | --- | -11.6 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | ✓ 0.3 | 5.3 | --- | -5.0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | ✓ 7.7 | 3.2 | --- | +4.5 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | ✓ 3.6 | 6.7 | --- | -3.1 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | ✓ 4.0 | 8.4 | --- | -4.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | ✓ 14.1 | 10.0 | --- | +4.1 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 0.6 | 12.8 | --- | -12.2 |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | --- | +15.1 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 15.0 | 5.2 | --- | +9.8 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 7.9 | --- | +1.1 |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 20.4 | 14.7 | --- | +5.7 |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | ✓ 3.0 | 3.7 | --- | -0.7 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | --- |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust. @ DEN cold 42°F, outdoor. XGB agrees with MODERATE selection. QB13 ranking supports mid-tier outcome. 18.0 within MOD [9-24].
Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 15
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 19.3 | ? | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 25.8 | ? | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], 25% BUST. XGB: 20% boom, 34% bust. MC strongly favors BOOM based on ARI's recent hot streak. @ HOU dome, QB10 ranking. Trusting MC over XGB. 20.0 within BOOM [12-30].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 22
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | ? | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 19.6 | ? | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 65% MOD [8-20], 19% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust. XGB warns high bust risk vs ATL. Thursday game 72°F Tampa perfect. RB8 ranking but XGB caution - selecting conservative MODERATE. 15.0 within [8-20].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 19
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.1 | ? | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 16.1 | ? | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MOD [2-14], 18% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 33% bust. @ SF 49ers defense, RB45 ranking = SIT. Committee back, limited ceiling. MODERATE mode. 8.0 within [2-14].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 139
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 6.7 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.4 | ? | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [5-17], 27% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust. @ KC tough matchup, cold 44°F. XGB strongly warns BUST. RB25 ranking, but holding for ceiling - MODERATE. 12.0 within [5-17].
Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 60
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 14.7 | ? | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6], 22% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WSH, but NYG offense struggles. XGB + MC agree BUST likely. 5.0 within BUST range [-1-6].
Context: O/U: 47.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MOD [12-24], 29% BOOM. XGB: 12% boom, 22% bust. vs IND weak secondary, WR1 ranking. Seattle favored by 11.5. Rain 45°F manageable. Conservative MODERATE with upside. 22.0 within [12-24].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 28.1 | ? | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 4.3 | ? | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 46% BUST [3-11], 39% MOD. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust. @ NO dome. CAR offense struggling but WR21 ranking. XGB more optimistic than MC. Split difference - MODERATE. 12.0 within [7-19].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 11.3 | ? | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [16-31], 26% MOD. XGB: 32% boom, 28% bust. vs LAC #2 pass D - tough matchup offsets boom tendency. WR7 ranking. XGB boom at 32% suggests potential. MODERATE safer. 18.0 within MOD [10-22].
Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 11
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 32% | Bust 28% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 7.4 | ? | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 29.4 | ? | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [9-21], 24% BOOM. XGB: 12% boom, 46% bust. @ LAR dome, DET shootout potential (55.5 total). XGB warns bust risk. WR11 ranking. MODERATE with upside. 15.0 within [9-21].
Context: O/U: 55.5 | ECR: 35
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 46% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | ? | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 26.9 | ? | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 55% MOD [8-13], 25% BOOM. XGB: insufficient data. vs CLE good D (rank 9 vs WR), snow 37°F Chicago. WR35 ranking = FLEX. MODERATE. 11.0 within [8-13].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 45
MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 11.0 | ? | +0.7 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% MOD [4-13], 32% BOOM. XGB: 15% boom, 61% bust. vs CAR weak D at TE. XGB warns high bust but MC sees moderate floor. TE15 ranking. MODERATE. 9.0 within [4-13].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 18
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 7.8 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 8.9 | ? | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [2-8], 40% MOD [7-16]. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust. vs BUF #1 TE defense (4.9 pts allowed). Both MC + XGB warn bust. MODERATE at bottom of range. 8.0 within [7-16].
Context: O/U: 50.5 | ECR: 20
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24]. XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust. @ DEN cold 42°F, outdoor. XGB agrees with MODERATE selection. QB13 ranking supports mid-tier outcome. 18.0 within MOD [9-24].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 19.3 | ? | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 25.8 | ? | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 46% BUST [3-11], 39% MOD. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust. @ NO dome. CAR offense struggling but WR21 ranking. XGB more optimistic than MC. Split difference - MODERATE. 12.0 within [7-19].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 11.3 | ? | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19%
Notes: OUT - confirmed injured. Setting 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 12.9 | ? | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 33%
Notes: MC: 67% MOD [2-14], 18% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 33% bust. @ SF 49ers defense, RB45 ranking = SIT. Committee back, limited ceiling. MODERATE mode. 8.0 within [2-14].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 6.7 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.4 | ? | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 48% BUST [2-8], 40% MOD [7-16]. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust. vs BUF #1 TE defense (4.9 pts allowed). Both MC + XGB warn bust. MODERATE at bottom of range. 8.0 within [7-16].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6], 22% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WSH, but NYG offense struggles. XGB + MC agree BUST likely. 5.0 within BUST range [-1-6].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 11.0
MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%
Notes: MC: 55% MOD [8-13], 25% BOOM. XGB: insufficient data. vs CLE good D (rank 9 vs WR), snow 37°F Chicago. WR35 ranking = FLEX. MODERATE. 11.0 within [8-13].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 11.0 | ? | +0.7 |
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 47% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 19.4 | 19.4 | 47% | 38% | 15% | HIGH | ||
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.1 | 8.1 | 28% | 44% | 28% | MEDIUM | ||
| DJ Moore | WR | 10.9 | 10.9 | 18% | 53% | 29% | LOW | ||
| Keon Coleman | WR | 9.2 | 9.2 | 16% | 56% | 28% | LOW | ||
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 8.1 | 8.1 | 12% | 34% | 55% | LOW | ||
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11% | 28% | 60% | LOW | ||
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10% | 34% | 56% | LOW | ||
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 8.6 | 8.6 | 10% | 37% | 54% | LOW | ||
| Nick Chubb | RB | 6.9 | 6.9 | 9% | 30% | 61% | LOW |
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 23% | BOOM: 45%) | XGB (Boom 47% | Bust 15%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 28%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 69% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 29%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 47% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 28%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 55%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 60%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 32% | BOOM: 40%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 56%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 54%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 61%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 50% | 19% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 32% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.2 | 29% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 28% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.5 | 28% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 27% | 36% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.1 | 24% | 27% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.2 | 22% | 36% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.7 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 49% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.9 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 16% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.7 | 14% | 45% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 16% | 56% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.7 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 14% | 48% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 50% | 19% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.1 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 24% | 27% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.2 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 22% | 36% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 21% | 37% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.0 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 8% | 59% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.9 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 9.9 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 14% | 55% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 10% | 58% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.8 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 10% | 55% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 32% | 24% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 21% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.9 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 50% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.2 | 29% | 30% | |
| Michael Badgley | 8.5 | 28% | 45% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 27% | 36% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.7 | 22% | 43% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 49% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 47.9% | 32.4% | 19.7% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 44.8% | 36.1% | 19.2% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 31.6% | 40.8% | 27.6% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 26.6% | 51.7% | 21.7% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 22.0% | 44.8% | 33.2% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 12.0 | MODERATE | 20.7% | 57.1% | 22.2% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 20.0 | BOOM | 19.8% | 46.0% | 34.2% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 14.8% | 24.6% | 60.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | --- | 5.0 | BUST | 13.7% | 31.3% | 55.0% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 12.3% | 28.0% | 59.7% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.1% | 41.7% | 46.2% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 12.0% | 66.2% | 21.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 11.1% | 38.2% | 50.7% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 10.5% | 36.8% | 52.8% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 8.0 | MODERATE | 8.6% | 31.4% | 60.0% |
Win Probability
Floor: -6.2 pts | Median: +33.2 pts | Ceiling: +71.0 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Nick Chubb | QUESTIONABLE | 6.4 | Christian McCaffrey | 25.3 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 91.7 | 86.1% | +32.8 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 107.5 | 71.1% | +16.9 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 20.0 | 4.1-28.0 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 15.0 | 5.3-24.0 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.7-24.4 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 22.0 | 6.2-30.8 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 18.0 | 6.0-28.0 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.1-25.2 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-16.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.1-18.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.0 | 5.2-16.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 18.0 | 6.2-28.0 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.4-18.6 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.6-18.1 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 5.4-25.5 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | LOW | 11.0 | 7.4-14.7 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.5-21.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 19.3 | 8.3-31.2 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 1% | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 6.9 | 0.5-14.9 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 46% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.9-16.9 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 39% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 10.9 | 3.8-22.1 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.7-18.7 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.1 | 2.2-15.6 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 10.4 | 3.0-18.7 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.6 | 0.3-21.8 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 40% | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 10.4 | 4.0-19.4 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 17% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.1-26.8 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.7 | 11.9-35.2 | ↑15+: 76% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.4 | 2.3-20.9 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 6.7 | 0.4-15.5 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 49% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.2 | 3.6-19.8 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.9 | 0.6-16.8 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.6-16.2 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.2 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.6 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.3 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 22.8 | 47% @ 11.9 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.8 | 47% @ 11.7 | 33% @ 6.4 | 10.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.3 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 22% @ 17.6 | 39% @ 9.2 | 40% @ 4.0 | 8.9 |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 106.9 vs 98.1 | W2 | 99.9% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8-5 | 1633.8 | 1645.4 | -11.6 | 147.3 vs 116.9 | L1 | 81.5% |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 8-5 | 1429.7 | 1471.9 | -42.3 | 75.6 vs 130.4 | W1 | 48.3% |
| 4 | Valued Customers ← | 7-6 | 1686.6 | 1445.6 | +241.0 | 130.4 vs 75.6 | W3 | 59.8% |
| 5 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-6 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 116.9 vs 147.3 | L1 | 35.3% |
| 6 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-6 | 1610.5 | 1537.4 | +73.1 | 98.1 vs 106.9 | W4 | 30.9% |
| 7 | Wookie of the Year | 7-6 | 1603.3 | 1616.8 | -13.5 | 125.0 vs 99.2 | W1 | 39.3% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-7 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 103.8 vs 106.8 | L1 | 4.4% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-7 | 1478.5 | 1533.2 | -54.7 | 99.2 vs 125.0 | L3 | 0.5% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 5-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.6 | -90.1 | 106.8 vs 103.8 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Auto DraftKings | 4-9 | 1584.9 | 1631.2 | -46.3 | 82.0 vs 104.6 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 12 | The Warsaw Pact | 4-9 | 1495.1 | 1646.5 | -151.4 | 104.6 vs 82.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 106.9 | @ | 98.1 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| 4th and pinches | 147.3 | @ | 116.9 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 75.6 | @ | 130.4 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 125.0 | @ | 99.2 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
| Moms rules | 103.8 | @ | 106.8 | Smooth Roosters |
| Auto DraftKings | 82.0 | @ | 104.6 | The Warsaw Pact |
WR depth thin with MHJ out. Monitor waiver wire for playoff-friendly schedules. Current FA candidates: Rashid Shaheed (NO) has boom potential, Cooper Kupp trending down.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 0.0 | - | 24.0 | +24.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 0.0 | - | 15.0 | +15.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 0.0 | - | 14.1 | +14.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 18.0 | 7.4 | -10.6 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 0.0 | - | 7.7 | +7.7 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 0.0 | - | 6.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 0.0 | - | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 11.0 | 14.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 12.0 | 14.7 | +2.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 15.0 | 17.3 | +2.3 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.9 | 8.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 9.0 | 7.8 | -1.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 15.0 | 16.1 | +1.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 20.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 0.0 | - | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 0.0 | - | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Our Team | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 11.0 | 11.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-12-08T23:43:39.613440